NAVI's dilemma: Must they win five more best-of-three series to lock in the Major?
As you know, NAVI were beaten badly by MOUZ, who pulled off a reverse sweep to eliminate NAVI. Based on analysis from @Udknud, let’s take a look at the situation NAVI are in right now.
After going out 0-2 at StarLadder, NAVI's chances of making the Major have now dropped to 87%. At EPL and PGL Bucharest, they need to win four matches to still have a shot at scraping through. Five or more wins would lock up a spot.
After losing to MOUZ, it is now a fact: NAVI will not appear in the top 20 of the next VRS rankings. In fact, projections show that NAVI will sit around 25th in the upcoming October 5 ranking (unless they go to Portugal or Sweden right now to play open LAN events). For a team like NAVI, being outside the top 20 is obviously unheard of. Of course, on strength alone NAVI are still a top-20 team, but this is how VRS works: if you go winless this season, you drop like a stone in VRS.
The consolation for NAVI fans is that, because their current ranking is so low, if they can quickly pick up some wins in the upcoming Tier-1 events, they can climb back just as quickly. But at this point, the knife is at their throats. NAVI still have three Tier-1 invites left, and they cannot gain any new invites from the October 5 rankings. Two of those events count toward Major qualification:
- ESL Pro League Season 24
- PGL Masters Bucharest 2026
As for IEM Beijing, they currently hold the third and final invite spot. It does not count toward the Major, but it will of course matter for NAVI’s future, namely their rankings in December and January, which will also determine invites to Tier-1 events.
On Major qualification: NAVI now need at least four wins across the two remaining events before the cutoff to squeak into the Major in most scenarios. They need five or more wins to lock it in 100%. With only three wins, their qualification chances would be very low. If they can get four to five or more wins, they are also likely to qualify for BLAST Open 2027, which matters a lot after they missed PGL Bucharest through the October rankings.
To earn an invite to the 2027 PGL event — also based on the November rankings — NAVI need to be inside the top 14 in the global rankings in November. That, in turn, means NAVI have to pick up more than four to five wins across two events. As for missing the Major, picture this: a 2-3 record in EPL and a 1-3 record at PGL Bucharest would get them there. If you want the numbers, the projection gives NAVI an 86% chance to qualify, but the better benchmark may be that they need four or more wins.
That gives you a way to judge how likely they are to achieve that goal. It could be higher or lower than 86%, but that number is based on NAVI still being a top-10 team in terms of overall strength.
“But couldn’t they just play another LAN before the deadline?” you might ask... Yes, they could, but they already turned down Thunderpick World Championship, which makes it unlikely they’re planning to do that.
Thunderpick World Championship participating teams
And the deadline is closing in. Remember, their final event, PGL Bucharest, lands right before that cutoff, which means they cannot book another LAN as a last-minute push. They need to make the call now, and the dilemma is that they are still relying on hitting the required target across two Tier-1 events. It would be ideal to know in advance whether they will need an extra LAN at the end, but they will not have that luxury. Incidentally, this is exactly the same dilemma facing every team outside the Tier-1 circle: how much they need to play, and what they need to play, to give themselves the best qualification chance, because entering events can also mean losing matches and dropping points.