Skin Talk: Has the popularity of Major-related skins fallen off a cliff?
Although the related Sticker Capsules for the Perfect World Shanghai Major 2024 have not gone on sale yet, and it is not yet the point where everyone starts spending Steam Wallet balance and opening capsules like crazy trying to pull their favorite player/team Gold sticker.Still, even if people can say Sticker Capsules are something to “wait for the sale” on, interest in Major map Souvenir Packages—which stay at full price and do not get discounted—has visibly fallen off!
According to stats from overseas blogger @RaCSGO, across the three Majors from BLAST.tv Paris Major 2023 to Perfect World Shanghai Major 2024, the output of Covert skins from Souvenir Packages (AWP | Desert Hydra, M4A4 | Eye of Horus, and M4A1-S | Welcome to the Jungle) has fallen sharply: from 1,668 at BLAST.tv Paris Major 2023, down to 820 at PGL CS2 Major Copenhagen 2024, and then to a bleak 311 at Perfect World Shanghai Major 2024.
Granted, sales for the Perfect World Shanghai Major 2024 Capsules/Souvenir Packages are not over yet, and more supply will inevitably enter the market later on, but for Souvenir Packages, which are not affected by discounts, it may be hard to see another large wave of new supply after this.
At the same time, if we look at overall Souvenir output, the drop-off in players’ “open cases hype” for Souvenir Packages is even more obvious: from nearly 5.72 million generated at BLAST.tv Paris Major 2023, down to around 2.10 million at PGL CS2 Major Copenhagen 2024, and finally to a bleak 470,000 at Perfect World Shanghai Major 2024!
Introduction to the 2021 Souvenir Inventory
Introduction to the 2015 Souvenir Inventory
At the same time, the Souvenir Package’s absurd “Covert drop rate” has also scared off many fans who open cases. Just how hard is it to pull a “Covert” Souvenir? Even though it is only “Covert,” its 0.026% pull rate makes it a full ten times harder than pulling a “Rare Special Item” from a regular Case (0.26%)!
Souvenir Package drop rates
Aside from Souvenir Packages, how much hype is there around Sticker Capsules? According to a January 11, 2024 report by HLTV, Stickers from the BLAST.tv Paris Major 2023 brought in more than $110 million in revenue, with teams in the Contenders Capsule taking as much as $4.5 million each, and each player receiving $250,000. The news even drew coverage from other mainstream media outlets.
Just as everyone was starting to think the success of BLAST.tv Paris Major 2023 would become the norm for Major Sticker items, and the idea that “making one Major is enough to feed a team for a year” was gradually taking root, the inside information shared by Complexity Gaming CEO Jason Lake during his appearance on The Four Horsemen completely shattered that “fantasy.”
Jason Lake: Since BLAST.tv Paris Major 2023, profit from Sticker sales has fallen off a cliff. BLAST.tv Paris Major 2023 will always be an outlier. It had special significance as the final CS:GO Major, which is why Paris sold two to more than four times as much as other Majors. Some teams really did base their financial planning for the following year on those millions in Sticker revenue share. But that simply is not sustainable. What we can see is that PGL CS2 Major Copenhagen 2024’s Sticker profit was down nearly 75% compared with BLAST.tv Paris Major 2023, and judging by where Perfect World Shanghai Major 2024 stands right now, this Major may end up another 30%–40% lower than PGL CS2 Major Copenhagen 2024.
Why are people no longer willing to buy Sticker stickers?Honestly, every Major feels the same: no background, the same team logo designs, and only a different event organizer logo at the bottom. For players, that probably really is getting pretty boring.
Backgroundless stickers from PGL Major Stockholm 2021 to PGL CS2 Major Copenhagen 2024
What can Valve do to improve the situation going forward?
On The Four Horsemen podcast, Complexity Gaming CEO Jason Lake also shared his take: “Release some new team-related cosmetics: team charms, team gloves. Why not learn from VALORANT? It would be a win-win-win for the developer, teams, and players.”
Community-made mockups from overseas of Major team charms
The OpTic Gaming sticker designed by graphs, the creator of “Eco this round” Sticker
Have you also started to lose interest in the new team-related items that come out with each Major? Or are you still waiting for Valve to put the Stickers on sale so you can scratch that case-opening itch? Let us know what you think in the comments.~