Skin Talk: Which rare skins have players still not unboxed?
Recently, skins creator Anomaly put together a list of "theoretically possible" items that still haven't been unboxed by players. Even though nearly 12 years have passed from CS:GO to today's CS2, and the player base has already opened 2 billion cases, some items still haven't surfaced. So which cosmetics are still missing? Let's take a look.
StatTrak™ Karambit | Case Hardened Factory New 387
As the best pattern index for a Karambit | Case Hardened, 387 still has no known “Factory New StatTrak™” example in circulation. As the “endgame knife” among Case Hardened knives, the highest previous offer for a Factory New 387 was $1.5 million, and the owner, 青い王, still turned it down. If a StatTrak™ version—rarity-wise a 1/10 pull—ever gets unboxed, what price do you think this full-blue / blue gem Karambit could fetch?
Classic Knife | StatTrak™ Factory New Urban Masked
The Classic Knife was only introduced in 2019, and because it can only be pulled from the CS20 Case, its circulating supply is much smaller than that of other knife types. Within that pool, Urban Masked has its minimum float locked at 0.06, which massively cuts the odds of unboxing one in Factory New: among 6,492 Urban Masked Classic Knives, only 38 are Factory New, and the 1/10-rarity StatTrak™ Factory New version has still never been publicly unboxed. So next time you pull this “low-tier rare special item,” don’t be surprised if there’s no reference price for it~
Minimal Wear StatTrak™ Black Pearl series
Unlike Urban Masked, the Doppler series has its max float capped at 0.08, which makes pulling one in Minimal Wear much less likely — roughly one-third the odds of Factory New. And that’s before you even get to the rarest Doppler variant: Black Pearl. Fun fact: about 10% of Doppler pulls are “gem knives,” but only 1% of those gem knives are Black Pearls. So next time you pull one of these five knives — Huntsman Knife, Stiletto Knife, Ursus Knife, Bowie Knife, or M9 Bayonet — as a Minimal Wear StatTrak™ Black Pearl, don’t complain about it coming out Minimal Wear~
Shadow Daggers Minimal Wear StatTrak™ Ruby
Interestingly, even though Ruby has a much lower pull rate than Black Pearl, on the Shadow Daggers, the Minimal Wear StatTrak™ Ruby is actually the one that still hasn’t been produced. Unlike the Classic Knife, though, Shadow Daggers don’t only come from the Shadow Case; they can also be pulled from the Spectrum Case and Spectrum 2 Case. Maybe this pair of StatTrak™ Minimal Wear Ruby Shadow Daggers still has a chance to be unboxed someday~
max float “Waste Iron” Sawed-Off
Because the wear range for Sawed-Off | Rust Coat is 0.40–1.00, Valve has far denser usable discrete values than in a normal range, which makes a “max float” example possible. But the odds are still absurdly rare: 0.2 (the chance of pulling the specific blue) * 1/23301689 (the chance of hitting that exact float value), or 0.00000000853. Even the 0.0026 chance of pulling a rare special item from a case is 300,000 times higher than pulling a “max float” skin! The lowest-float skin in history might eventually be beaten by someone else, but if you pull one with the wear value maxed out to “all,” that would be the genuinely unbeatable “highest-float first”~
glitched Souvenir R8 Revolver | Amber Fade
When the DreamHack Winter 2013 and Katowice 2014 Souvenir Packages were released, the R8 Revolver had not yet been added to CS:GO. But after Valve later introduced the R8, those two older Souvenir Packages could still produce this “glitched R8.” That means only players who kept those Souvenir Packages unopened until after 2015 had a chance to pull this skin. The interesting part is that some of them carry the even rarer “Kato 14 Holos” stickers. Kato 14 Holos may at least have a price tag, but Kato 14 Holos are truly priceless treasures~